With the world’s eyes currently trained on the Vatican, a sea of red cloaks entering the Sistine Chapel means one thing – a new pope is about to be elected.
Around 135 cardinals from all corners of the globe will meet in a conclave this week on May 7 to discuss the future of the Catholic church.
They will then cast their vote on who will next take the reins of the religious institution.
The closed-door meeting comes 16 days after the death of Pope Francis. The 88-year-old died on April 21 following a stroke.
How is the new Pope chosen?
Vatican legislation states the conclave must meet within 20 days of the Pope’s death to participate in the secret ballot.
While there is no timescale for how long it can take to elect the next pope, the previous two conclaves finalised their decision in just two days.
As explained by Darius von Güttner Sporzynski, Historian and Dean of the Australian Catholic University’s Canberra campus, cardinals will cast two ballots each morning and two each afternoon, until a consensus of two-thirds majority is reached.
“While, in theory, any baptised Catholic man can be elected, for the past seven centuries the role has gone to a cardinal,” he wrote in The Conversation.
“That said, the outcome can still be unpredictable – sometimes even surprising the electors themselves. Ultimately, predicting a conclave is impossible. Dynamics often change once the cardinals enter the Sistine Chapel and begin voting.
“Alliances shift, new names emerge, and consensus may form around someone who was barely discussed beforehand.”
When will the public know when a new Pope has been elected?
The public will know when a decision has been made when smoke from the Sistine Chapel’s copper chimney turns white.
Black smoke signals a ‘failed vote’. Bells will also ring from St. Peter’s Basilica, the largest church in the world, as an audible confirmation that a new pope has been decided on.
The smoke was traditionally achieved by burning the ballots themselves, with wet straw included to create white smoke. However, they now use chemicals.
As depicted in the 2024 Oscar-winning film Conclave, which dramatised the inner workings of the Vatican’s selection process, there is strict secrecy surrounding the vote.
Cardinals must stay inside the walls of the Vatican throughout the election to ensure they cannot be influenced by anyone. Access to phones or the internet is also not allowed.
They will also be locked inside the Sistine Chapel when voting.
Who will be the new Pope?
For the leadership favourites, or the top ‘Papabili’ (which in Italian means “pope-able”, or “capable of becoming pope”), it will be a tense few days.
Those in contention are Cardinal Pietro Parolin, 70, currently the Secretary of State of Vatican City, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, 67, of the Philippines, Cardinal Matteo Zuppi, 69, from Italy, Cardinal John Olorunfemi Onaiyekan, 81, from Nigeria, and Ghana’s Cardinal Peter Turkson, 76.
“Parolin has long been one of Francis’s closest collaborators and has led efforts to open dialogue with difficult regimes,” Professor von Güttner Sporzynski says.
“Tagle is known for his deep commitment to social justice and the poor.
“Turkson has largely upheld the church’s traditional teachings on matters such as male-only priesthood, marriage between a man and a woman, and sexuality.”
After a cardinal has been elected, he will choose his papal name and enter a small antechamber within the Sistine Chapel called the Room of Tears.
He will have a moment to himself before appearing in public to greet Catholics around the world.
Whoever the conclave ends up electing, the consensus is they’ll have one tough act to follow.
Despite being the leader of 1.4 billion people, Francis was commonly referred to as the ‘People’s Pope’, with those closest to him describing him as “normal”. Born in Argentina, he was the first Latin American pontiff.
Where can I watch Conclave?
You can stream Conclave on Prime Video and Apple TV+.
